Winners, Losers and Luck of the Irish

Party cannibalism, pension reform and November deja vu. That's the forecast after Tuesday's primary elections.

Despite low voter turnout and a dearth of riveting races, California's new open primary system still managed to produce its share of drama and set the stage for additional twists in November's general election.

As returns trickled in Tuesday night, Orange County Republicans partied above an Irish bar/grill called Skosh Monahan's in Costa Mesa. By 8:40 p.m., there were about 50 people in the room, standing on a well-worn wooden floor battered by multiple rounds of Irish step-dancing lessons.

Fueled by free-flowing food and drink, the revelers watched election returns on Fox News (naturally) while small children were kept occupied by an XBox.

Party Cannibalism?

One of the most closely watched races in Orange County was the 74th Assembly District, where redistricting pitted conservative incumbent Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) against Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, a well-funded moderate Republican, and Democrat Robert Rush. Many predicted Daigle and Mansoor would be the top two vote-getters, creating an all-Republican general election race under California's new election rules, in which the top two primary candidates square off in November, regardless of party affiliation.

In conservative Orange County, that would create a party cannibalism effect in which a normally safe GOP candidate would face a fellow Republican in the general election.

In the past, candidates from a district's dominant party typically sailed from the primaries to the general election with ease. But if they have to spend their summer and war chests battling a challenger from their own party, “it lengthens the campaign season, and that’s a lot more expensive,” said UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser.

“Part of the idea of the open primary is that it will lead to the election of ... more moderate Republicans in Orange County and more moderate Democrats in San Francisco," Kousser said. "That’s the hope, anyway.”

Theoretically, candidates who can appeal to voters across the political spectrum would be more likely to survive the challenge of an open primary, he said.

However, in the 74th Assembly race, moderate Republican Daigle's dollars didn't buy enough votes. Mansoor held a comfortable lead and Democrat Rush took second place, ensuring a traditional Republican-Democrat face-off in November.

Even if Mansoor did have to face Daigle, the new rules might still give him an unintended edge, Kousser said.

Voters who head to the polls for November ballot measures and presidential races are often fairly uninformed about their district races, he said. Because they can’t just vote along party lines when faced with two candidates from the same party, they tend to vote for the incumbent, which in this case would favor Mansoor, Kousser said.

Patch's Race-by-Race Roundup

In the 45th congressional district (which includes Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest and Mission Viejo), Republican incumbent and retired robbery/homicide detective John Webb. By 10:45 p.m., Tea Party favorite Webb decided to hit the sack in his Rancho Santa Margarita home.

“I think we have a trend,” he said. “It was an honest offer to serve. I felt the people in office now didn’t have a good handle on it. I wanted to offer an alternative direction. I’ve always had a great deal of confidence in the American voter, and they’ve said they’re comfortable with what Campbell is doing, so I’ll get back to taking care of my family and be grateful for the experience of having run."

In the 47th congressional district (which encompasses Los Alamitos and Rossmoor), Democrat Alan Lowenthal will square off against Republican Gary DeLong in November.

In the neighboring 48th congressional district (which stretches from Seal Beach to Aliso Viejo), , a result likely to repeat when they meet again in November.

A similar deja vu vote is predicted in the 49th congressional district (which includes San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano and Dana Point), where .

State Assembly

68th District (includes parts of Lake Forest): Incumbent Republican Don Wagner captured the lion's share of votes. He'll see Democrat Christina Avalos again in November.

72nd District (includes Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, Fountain Valley): Republican Troy Edgar finished first, but the slot for his November challenger was a early Wednesday, and it appeared he would end up facing a fellow Republican this fall.

73rd District (includes San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita): More November deja vu. Incumbent in November.

74th District (includes Newport Beach and Laguna Beach): As discussed above, incumbent Allan Mansoor appeared to have dodged the prospect of facing another Republican this fall. He told Patch, "It's looking good for us so far. If things go as we plan, I'll continue my open-door policy and work on pension reform and get back to good government."

State Senate

37th District (includes Lake Forest, Newport Beach and Laguna Beach): Republican Mimi Walters, who had to move to Irvine to run in the redrawn district, held a sizeable lead over Democrat Steve Young, a race likely to repeat in November.

Orange County Supervisor

District 1 (includes Fountain Valley): Incumbent Janet Nguyen crushed opponent Steve Rocco by a 3-to-1 margin.

Orange County Ballot Measures

, which would have changed the county public administrator from an elected to appointed office, went down in flames. , which would limit pensions for county supervisors, won handily.

State Ballot Propositions

, which changed term limits for state legislators, was cruising to victory. , which would add a tax to cigarettes to fund cancer research, started the night slightly ahead, but the lead had reversed by early Wednesday, although the race was still too close to call.

For the latest vote totals in congressional, state and local races affecting your town, check out our "Live 2012 Election Results" tally on your local Patch website.

-- Patch staff writers Paige Austin, Rich Kane and Martin Henderson contributed to this story.